Top Ten Sox Propsects
By Jim Callis
Baseball America.com
January 4, 2008
Baseball America's Top 10 Prospects lists are based on projections of a player's long-term worth after discussions with scouting and player-development personnel. All players who haven't exceeded the major league rookie standards of 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched (without regard to service time) are eligible. Ages are as of April 1, 2008.
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When the Red Sox introduced Theo Epstein as their general manager in November 2002, he talked of building a "$100 million player-development machine." Epstein may have come in low on his estimate for big league payroll—Boston's constant warring with the Yankees helped push that figure to $143 million by Opening Day last year—but otherwise consider his goal a mission accomplished.
The Red Sox' first World Series championship of Epstein's tenure—and their first in 86 years—came in 2004. Just one fully homegrown player, Trot Nixon, was on the roster for all three rounds of the postseason. By contrast, the club that swept the Rockies in the 2007 World Series highlighted Boston's scouting and development aptitude. Rookies Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia batted atop the lineup in the last two games, and the only reason second-year starter Kevin Youkilis wasn't in the heart of the order was that David Ortiz moved to first with the DH out at Coors Field.
Second-year pitchers Jon Lester, Manny Delcarmen and Jonathan Papelbon did most of the pitching in the clincher. Clay Buchholz, who no-hit the Orioles in his second big league start in September, wasn't even needed. He sat out the playoffs with a tired arm.
The Red Sox' aggressive pursuit of talent on both the free-agent and amateur markets has them poised to be a World Series favorite for at least the next few years. Their deep, balanced farm system offers both position players and pitchers, with talent spread through the upper and lower levels. Though cracking the Boston roster will be difficult, righthanders Justin Masterson and Michael Bowden, shortstop Jed Lowrie and outfielder Brandon Moss are just about ready for prime-time duty. Deeper down, first baseman Lars Anderson, outfielder Ryan Kalish, lefty Nick Hagadone and shortstop Oscar Tejeda are loaded with promise.
The Red Sox aren't afraid to buck Major League Baseball and spend what they deem necessary on the draft. That's an advantage, to be sure, but it still can't take away from the success scouting director Jason McLeod has had running drafts from 2005-07. McLeod's first draft included Ellsbury, Buchholz, Lowrie and Bowden. Boston signed Masterson, Kalish, outfielder Jason Reddick and Anderson all after the first round in 2006. Last June, the Sox lacked a true first-rounder but still had an impressive haul that included Hagadone and middle infielder Ryan Dent in the sandwich round and Will Middlebrooks in the fifth.
Boston also is becoming a leader on the international front. Besides signing Japanese big leaguers Daisuke Matsuzaka and Hideki Okajima, the Sox have bolstered the farm system the last two years with the likes of Tejeda, outfielder Engel Beltre (sent to the Rangers in the Eric Gagne trade) and infielder Michael Almanzar from the Dominican Republic and outfielder Che-Hsuan Lin from Taiwan.
Besides restocking the big league club, the depth also provides Boston with plenty of trade fodder. The Red Sox gave up Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez in a November 2005 swap that landed ace Josh Beckett and World Series MVP Mike Lowell. They also appear to be in as good a position as any club to acquire Johan Santana if the Twins decide to deal the best pitcher in baseball.
Jacoby Ellsbury, of
Strengths: Ellsbury puts his plus-plus speed to good use on the bases and in center field. At the plate, he focuses on getting on base with an easy live-drive swing and outstanding bat control. He's a prolific and efficient base stealer, swiping 50 bases in 57 tries in 2007, including a perfect 9-for-9 in the majors. He's a Gold Glover in the making in center field.
Weaknesses: Ellsbury has just 10 homers in 1,017 minor league at-bats, but Boston believes he has the deceptive strength to hit 10-15 homers a season. Like Clay Buchholz, he spent time at API during the offseason to add strength. Ellsbury's arm is below-average.